Muhammad Haris Khan
In this modern globalized world, the gravity of states over their affairs iswithering away. The repercussions of a political or economic adventure or misadventure in one part are reflected in other parts of the world. This has dwindled down the traditional sovereignty of states over their internal affairs.In the contemporary international system, a country cannot stay isolated and thus dependent on other states and non-state actors. These challenges have compelled the feeble state system to seek grounds to redefine sovereignty in their internal matters. Pakistan is also facing the same predicaments. The dependence of Pakistan, as in case of every other country, on other states and non-state actors affect the security policies and hence stability inside its territory.
The instability in Pakistan is of a complex nature. From the outset, Pakistan is socially, economically and politically unstable. As all the aspects are correlated, instability in Pakistan cannot be expressed in a unidimensional way. However, to understand a multifaceted puzzle, there is a need to break it into pieces. The focus of this paper will be on the external factors affecting the security situation and stability in Pakistan.
Afghan Conflict
Within all the external forces that affect the security environment and stability in Pakistan, the most important of them is the conflict and instability in Afghanistan. As both countries are historically, culturally, socially and religiously connected with deep-rooted bonds and have a long porous border, a national incident of political or economic nature in one country is felt in another with strong repercussions. It means that stability in one country is a basic imperative for a better security situation in the other.
The anatomy of the Afghan conflict is very complex. After the US invasion following the September 11 attacks, the war has almost completed its two decades. The war has proved too costly to the people and government of Afghanistan, the coalition partners and the regional neighbours, particularly Pakistan.
The policy of fighting Taliban in the battleground did not achieved the desired results. Despite the intense hurdles, the Taliban are now controlling more than 60% of Afghan territory. The only solution is a political settlement through Afghan-led and Afghan-owned dialogue that will incorporate all the Afghan parties into the political system. The recent peace talks in Doha between the US and Taliban are seen as a hope to put an end to the long lasting war. Although the talks are a sign of positive development, they can be successful only if all the stakeholders are involved in the negotiations including the elected Afghan government. Otherwise, it can lead to another civil war in the region.
The Afghan conflict has impacted the stability in Pakistan. The rise of religious extremism and terrorism, inflow of illegal weapons and drugs, and millions of Afghan refugees influx into Pakistan has created law and order situation and instability.
The nestled Islamist militant groups in tribal areas, in the aftermath of US invasion in October 2001, created ideological affiliations in the local population. This gave rise to TTP, that opposed and rejected the constitution and political system of Pakistan and demanded strict form of Shariah Law in the country. The consequent massive terrorist attacks of TTP against the civilian population and security personnel deteriorated the security situation of the country.
The military operations and broad national security policy have almost put an end to the menace of TTP and other religious terrorist organizations. Yet, there is a lot to do in this domain and the country needs the use of both soft and hard power to root out extremist ideologies and terrorist elements from the society. Besides this, another consequence of Afghan conflict is the importation of illegal weapons and drugs in Pakistan, which has deeply embedded in our society. This menace needs coherent and comprehensive policies and theirswift implementation to deal with.
The burden of three million Afghan refugees has created social, economic and political problems. This leads to instability in the country. This has created law and order situation as some of the elements from within Afghan refugees are involved in subversive activities in Pakistan. Terrorist activities have been orchestrated from across the western border. Pakistan on several occasions has handed over evidences of such subversive activities operating from Afghan territory to the government of Afghanistan. The hideouts of TTP and other terrorist organizations in Afghanistan are a serious threat to the security of Pakistan. Yet, the problem needs to be handled with great care so as to not to wash out sacrifice of hosting the three million null handed people for forty years.
The incumbent government, on 27th June 2019, has extended the period of stay for the registered Afghan Refugees for one year. The decision has been appreciated in national and international quarters. UNHCR welcomed Pakistan’s decision. The decision will help in the honourable and voluntary repatriation of Afghan refugees back to Afghanistan.
Stability in Afghanistan is indispensable for the stability in Pakistan. The recent talks between different Afghan factions held in Murree, termed as “Lahore Process”, and the visit of the President of Afghanistan to Pakistan afterward shows good intentions and deep sincerity of Pakistan in bringing peace and stability in Afghanistan.
India’s Wish For Hegemony
India’s ambitions of hegemony over the region poses an existential threat to Pakistan. A hegemon always pursues the policy of hostility. As put forward by John J. Mearsheimer in his book, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, ” the claim that states maximize relative power is tantamount to arguing that states are disposed to think offensively toward other states even though their ultimate motive is simply to survive.” It means that a hegemon uses moral and immoral strategies to gain power in the region.
As the lust for power never ends, so the hegemon continuously disturbs others to gain more and more power.
Pakistan is the only country in South Asia that challenges the hegemony of India in the region. That is the main reason for Indian hostility towards Pakistan. Thus, India wants to weaken Pakistan in the region by creating instability to worsen the security environment by using proxy wars. There are evidences that India financially and logistically supports TTP, BLA and other terrorists organizations to carry out terrorist activities inside Pakistan.
The confessions ofTTP spokesmanIhsanullahIhsan, surrendered in April 2017, indicates the involvement of RAW (the Indian intelligence agency) in carrying outterrorist activities in Pakistan. The Indian Navy commander KulbushanJadhav, arrested in Balochistan during a counter-intelligence operation in March 2016, accepted that India has been involved in subversive activities in Pakistan. He confessed that RAW has established links with Baloch insurgents and other terrorists groups to create instability in Balochistan. They are also destabilizing Karachi, the main economic hub, by supporting the anti-Pakistan faction of MQM led by Altaf Hussain.
The spy agency is involved in target killings and massive bomb attacks in Balochistan and Sindh, particularly against Shia Muslims, to incite sectarian violence in Pakistan. Besides this, India supports the anti-national elements in Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir to destabilize Pakistan on multiple fronts.India is also accused of supporting and financing the Pashtun Tahaffoz Movement (PTM) to erupt ethnic violence in the country. Recently, the incursion of Indian jets in Pakistani space after the Pulwama attack in February this year and the resulting standoff had pushed the two nations to the brink of a full-scale war. The confrontation has created instability in the region. Despite the peaceful gestures by Pakistan, India intended to isolate Pakistan diplomatically and destabilizing internally through supporting separatist groups.
US-China Rivalry
The other most influential factor is the US-China rivalry, which has the potential of destabilizing Pakistan. The hegemony of the US on the world affairs is declining after the rise of a multipolar world with China as the most influential player. The global power shift from the US to China is creating tensions in the world. This has been termed as the Cold War 2.0.
The rivalry has certain factors that can destabilize Pakistan. The most important among them is the US support for India to contain China in the region. This can distort the balance of power in the South Asia with India having an edge over Pakistan. The imbalance would have severe consequences for the security situation of Pakistan and the whole region.
Another factor is the ongoing trade war between the US and China that has raised the eyebrows of the international community. The implication for Pakistan is that China is the strategic partner investing billions of Dollars in the name of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor while US is a global power whose political and economic support for Pakistan iscrucial. Although, China and US are likely to restart trade talks, as the leaders of the two countries have agreed in the recent G20 Summit in Japan,Pakistan needs not to think itself on the crossroads and remains neutral throughout this scenario. Joining one camp at the expense of the other can have severe consequences for Pakistan.
Saudi-Iran Power Struggle
The last but not the least are the possible consequences that can arise from the Saudi-Iran power struggle. The decades-old Riyadh-Tehran rift is a relentless characteristic of the geopolitics of theMiddle East. Although there have been ups and downs in Saudi-Iran relations, the major rivalry started after the Iranian Revolution in 1979.
The Iranian revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khamenei criticized the Wahabi Saudi monarchy and claimed the Shia theocracy’s authority over the Muslim Ummah while bypassing Saudi Arabia.
Moreover, the Iranian intentions to use media to ignite the Shia population in Saudi Arabia against the Saudi monarchy further deteriorated the relations between the two. The rivalry resulted in the proxy wars against the interests of each other in the region, with Saudi Arabia supporting Sunnis while Iran supporting Shia school of thought.
In this tense scenario, Pakistan is facing tough times to keep a balance between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is not easy to establish a cordial relationship with both Tehran and Riyadh at a time. In recent past, remaining neutral on Yemen issue fadedIslamabad relations with Riyadh. Similarly, in 2015, when retired General Rahil Sharif opted to lead the Saudi formed Islamic Military Alliance, Iran was quick to seek an explanation from Pakistan. The recent visit of Muhammad Bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and investment in the Balochistan that borders Iran, raised the eyebrows of Tehran and considered the move as a threat to her interests in the region.
Saudi Arabia and Iran, both are important for Pakistan. The former enjoys the ideological support of the majority of the people and supports Pakistan financially and economically while the later neighbors Pakistan in the west and enjoys the ideological support of Shia minorities in Pakistan.
As there are many extremist and militant Sunni and Shai groups, sothe Riyadh-Tehran rift has the potential of erupting Shia-Sunni sectarian violence inside Pakistan. To remain stable, Pakistan should have to strictly follow the policy of neutrality. Moreover, Pakistan, as a Muslim nuclear country, should play the role of mediator to ease the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The cordial relationship between Riyadh and Tehran is in the best interest of Islamabad.
Recommendations
– Pakistan should play its role of facilitator in resolving the Afghan conflict through a political settlement.
– Fencing the western border only will not stop the inflow of terrorists into Pakistan territory, strict security along the border isessential.
– The inflowof illegal weapons and drugs needs coherent and comprehensive policies and their immediate and effective implementation to root them out of society.
– The problem of Afghan refugees should be handled with great care. The Government should form the policy of step by step repatriation of the refugees in an honorable way.
– While opposing the hegemony of India, Pakistan needs to strengthen its relations with SAARC member countries and keep relations better with US and China.
– The use of both soft and hard power is necessary to root out the extremism, militancy and terrorism from within society that has the potential to be used by foreign agencies.
– Pakistan has to keep a balance in relations with Beijing and Washington. Eachhas its own importance and role in the political and economic stability of Pakistan.
– Pakistan should strictly follow the policy of neutrality in relationship with Saudi Arabia and Iran, and should play the role of mediator between them.
Conclusion
Pakistan is facing social, political and economic instability since 1947. The instability is not only due to internal factors, the external factors have greatly deteriorated the security situation. The Afghan Conflict, Indian intentions of Hegemony in South Asia, US-China rivalry and power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran are some of the main external factors that create or has the potential to create instability in Pakistan.
As Pakistan cannot let these factors away, so there is a need for coherent and comprehensive domestic, security and foreign policy to deal with these factors and bring and keep stability inside the country.
The author is a Research Assistant at the Center for Global & Strategic Studies (CGSS), a think tank based in Islamabad. He holds Masters Degree in Political Science.
