Muhammad Haris Khan
Research Assistant CGSS (Part-1)
Introduction
After World War II, various international regimes were founded to halt the production and dispersion of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) in the world. Apart from this, a country faces tough economic and financial sanctions and international isolation while acquiring nuclear weapons. Despite all these tough barriers, the production of nuclear weapons has increased since the end of the Great War and many countries have attained nuclear arsenals. One of these countries is the People Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK), also called North Korea. Have started work on developing nuclear weapons since the 1980s. Despite international sanction and isolation, they acquired the capability of producing powerful nuclear arsenals as well as long range ballistic missiles.
The nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missile capability, with the aggressive behaviour of North Korea, has created grave threats to international order and regional security. The tough economic and financial sanctions, international isolation and frequent negotiations have not worked yet to denuclearize Pyongyang. This paper analyses the nuclearization of North Korea and the threats it poses to the regional security and stability of the Northeast Asian region.
Nuclearization of North
Korea: A Brief History
The ambition of North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons started in 1950s. The Korean War has taught the North Korean regime to build up nuclear arsenals if it has to protect itself from the regional and global adversaries. In the 1960s, the Soviet Union, its main ally, helped North Korean scientists to acquire and develop knowledge about nuclear energy. The USSR also assisted North Korea to develop a nuclear energy program.
In the 1980s, despite that North Korea has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1985; it started to develop plutonium enrichment plant. In 1994, the US and North Korea signed “Agreed Framework” according to which North Korea should abandon and dismantle its nuclear program in exchange for two light-water nuclear reactors. But the deal did not achieve its goals and both blamed each other for the failure of the treaty. After withdrawal from NPT in 2003, North Korea successfully conducted its first nuclear test in 2006, the second nuclear test in 2009, and third in 2013. A hydrogen bomb was also claimed by North Korea to be successfully tested, added by an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that has the potential to strike “anywhere in the world”, in 2017. Until now, The Democratic People Republic of Korea (DPRK) has conducted a total of six nuclear tests.
Current Nuclear Capabilities
Assuming leadership in 2011, Kim Jong-Un has actively and increasingly sophisticated the North Korean nuclear program. Under Kim, about four nuclear tests and more than ninety missile tests are conducted until now. Apart from the nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, North Korea is believed to possess chemical as well as biological weapons capabilities.
Nuclear Warheads
Though there is significant disagreement over the facts and figures about the warheads possess by North Korea, but on some figures, the experts have substantial consensus. Currently, the estimate shows that North Korea has 20-30 warheads. Apart from this, they also possess fissile material for about 30-60 nuclear weapons. By 2020, the number of warheads may exceed to 20-100.
In addition to warheads, it is estimated that North Korea may possess 20-40 kg of enriched Plutonium and 250-500 kg of highly enriched uranium which have the capability to produce 6-7 nuclear weapons annually.
Missile Program
North Korea possesses a series of various missile programs that includes short-ranged, medium and intercontinental-range and submarine and satellite-launched ballistic missiles.
Chemical and Biological Weapons
North Korea has reportedly an estimated stockpile of 2500-5000 tons of chemical weapons. The alleged help of the Soviet Union and China in the past has enabled North Korea to develop such type of weapons of mass destruction including biomedical weapons.
In addition, North Korea reportedly has the ability to produce the biological weapons, despite that it has signed the Biological Weapons Convention and Geneva Accord in 1987 and 1988 respectively, both of which have imposed a ban on biological weapons. The regime has the alleged capability of producing pathogens including smallpox, pest (plague) and anthrax.
The threat to Regional Stability
The constitution of North Korea has declared that ‘National defence is the supreme duty of citizens’, a philosophical foundation that enables the regime to put the national defence on the top priority. That’s why, despite the fact that North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world, yet it spends nearly a quarter of its GDP on defence and security purposes. Pyongyang has developed its nuclear program for two reasons; to deter the external threats and to keep survive its totalitarian rule.
This philosophy of the North Korean regime has ventured the security and stability of the whole world, particularly the North-East Asian region. The increasing nuclear arsenals, biological and chemical weapons, and ballistic missile program have threatened the regional countries and world powers, although they still remain unable to denuclearize North Korea. The growing concerns for the possible nuclear catastrophe possess many logical contexts:
The growing nuclear and ballistic missile tests of North Korea can instigate the nuclear arms race in the region, which will have detrimental effects on regional stability and security. This can result in the conflict or even a full-scale war in the Korean peninsula. The race of developing nuclear arsenals can badly affect the global economy, as China is the world’s 2nd, Japan is the 3rd and South Korea is 11th largest economy. This can deteriorate the security situation and stability of the region as well as the whole world.
Another context of the terrible threat is from the possible regime collapse in North Korea. As North Korea is a totalitarian regime with most of its population living in miserable conditions, so there is a great possibility of a political mass movement against the Pyongyang. The mass movement can lead to a civil war and regime collapse. In the post-regime collapse situation or Korean conflict, there is a serious threat that the nuclear weapons may be proliferated to non-state actors and North Korean ground forces, which can use WMDs in their defence. In order to deter such a situation, the US and South Korean ground forces will require a quick advancement into North Korean territory to find and secure the WMDs. Otherwise, the results will be disastrous for the region as well as the whole world.
Apart from this, the worst economic and financial sanctions and the miserable condition of its population can compel the North Korean regime to proliferate its nuclear weapons to other state and non-state actors for financial gains and economic survival. This has anxious the world powers and they seek a political and diplomatic solution to denuclearize the regime, but no such strategy has solved the problem yet. Additionally, The U.S deployment of anti-ballistic and nuclear missiles at Korean peninsula is also a consequential threat to the Chinese territory. This can cause another conflict in the region between the US and Chinese interests.
Efforts are undergoing to denuclearize the North Korean regime. However, Preventive Military strikes might be inappropriate to denuclearize Kim’s regime while tactics like containment, sanctions, and deterrence could help in halting their nuclear program. Any kind of military limited strikes by USA or coalition forces could provoke a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula.
