Abdullah Mustafvi
Finally the world has seen that historic moment when peace deal was inked between US and Afghan Taliban at Doha. Restoration of peace now seems closer than the past ! There is nothing wrong in being a bit optimistic to make pleasant predictions but spoilers expected in Afghanistan portray an entirely different picture of precarious situation on ground. Past track record of all stake holders do compel to expect unforeseen hurdles in the thorny path of peace. After Russian defeat and American pull out in 90s decade, no foreign force but Afghans fought with each other. This prolonged unrest got settled momentarily for a short period with Afghan Taliban in control of major part of the country. But then came 9/11 attacks, which damaged Afghanistan more than USA in the longer run. How Afghanistan would move forward from the point where it stands today? This question cannot be answered in a simple way! It is not easy to assess that which Afghan group or faction has hold over major part of the country. At the same time, it is almost proved that Afghan unity government has serious handicaps in maintaining proper control and running the state affairs in desired manner. Dispute over recent presidential elections has further deepen the divide in non- Taliban stake holders . On the contrary, strength of Afghan Taliban has been internationally recognized and deal after dialogue is the undeniable proof of this fact. This reckoning of Afghan Taliban has started haunting the other groups which in the past had remained insecure and out of place despite being in power for all practical purposes. Tough and non-flexible stance of Taliban towards unity government has further added to the worries of Ashraf Ghani regime which rightly feels its political future in darkness. Despite rosy claims emerging from both sides about success of Intra Afghan Dialogues, no unrealistic hopes should be pinned at this moment. Tone and tanner of American spokespersons was extra ordinarily harsh and threatening few weeks before. Despite signing the deal , President Trump warned that US troops might return to the arena with full force if the conditions not fulfilled by the Taliban. There will be an initial withdrawal of troops while leaving approximately 8600 troops behind. No special interpretation is required to comprehend the prevailing environment under which US and Taliban had to ink the agreement . As per American spokesperson, dialogues took place in a state of sheer trust deficit. Progress on this agreement would be closely monitored for proper implementation. Any further threat emerging to USA from Kabul will be dealt with a more powerful return of American forces. It is not difficult to extract from these statements that USA is aiming at a partial pull out which needs to be executed after building consensus over future governance of Afghanistan. In the absence of any nonviolent arrangement between these local stake holders, unrest is likely to increase as it happened in the past after soviet withdrawal.. Afghanistan may fall in a crisis primarily due to irresponsible behavior of stake holders. Internal rift and unrest will surely get multiplied with active existence of Daesh who had been claiming major attacks . These are not the good omen for much talked about future of peace. Future governance formula has not yet been disclosed that how would this war ridden land be managed once Taliban are not ready to adopt a flexible stance about existing unity government. Otherwise, Afghans are not good in sharing the rule among each other. Under such unpredictable circumstances, Pakistan cannot lower the guards on western border where restoration peace still seems a far cry. After Afghanis it is Pakistan which desperately desires for peace in Afghanistan. Unrest and instability in neighborhood has deeply damaged Pakistan. Major efforts made in war against terror were focused against the terrorists or intruders who were part of anti-Pakistan proxies launched by India via Afghanistan. Despite struggling for restoration of peace in Afghanistan , at this stage, Pakistan should remain vigilant about latest happenings and future unfolding as the consequences would surely be difficult to face in a state of unpreparedness. Any deal between USA and Taliban , if fails in settling the disputes among Afghan groups , would result in more unrest and bloodshed. Interesting part of the game is still least explored and discussed that during last 19 years which elements or states had been backing up Afghan Taliban who managed to bring USA on kneels , as far as dialogue table is concerned. Local stake holders Russia and China do carry serious reservations about American prolonged presence in this region. Obviously , future of Afghanistan largely depends upon the relations and mutual settlement of conflicting interests among the major global players. Ashraf Ghani’s refusal to release 5000 prisoners have emerged as one out of many likely spoilers. Pak foreign office has rightly reminded USA to keep an eye over multiple spoilers.
