Iqbal Khan
Interesting alignment is coming up in Afghanistan after the signing of Peace Agreement, some of the erstwhile rivals are coming together to join the peace effort. One such string is Tajiks and Hazaras joining Taliban. In another development assassination attempt on Dr Abdullah Abdullah, ostensibly planned and executed jointly by Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) and India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has misfired and would have its impact. In all probability President Ashraf Ghani’s, already dysfunctional government, is slipping towards paralysis. Pakistan is not likely to compromise on its vital interests in the context of Afghanistan.
Chief negotiators of the United States and Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Ex-Taliban) signed a peace agreement of Feb29 that will regulate withdrawal (runaway) of occupation troops in return for some vague guarantees by the Emirate. Deal has been made possible by President Trump’s electoral compulsions and acumen of Bajwa Doctrine.
General Qamar Javed Bajwa told the Afghan authorities in unequivocal terms that Pakistan has no expansionist designs about Afghanistan. This doctrine openly abandoned the idea (if it ever existed) of strategic depth and Afghanistan as the fifth province of Pakistan. The Bajwa Doctrine seeks total peace on western borders and wants to make Iran and Afghanistan as its erstwhile allies. The doctrine continued its engagement policy with the USA but without being involved in the infighting within Afghanistan.
President Donald Trump held a phone call with the Taliban and discussed vaiolence across Afghanistan with the militant group. “We had a good conversation. We’ve agreed there is no violence,” Trump said on March 03. Suhail Shaheen, a Taliban spokesman, tweeted that the call between Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Trump lasted roughly five minutes.
The fragile agreement between the Taliban and US is already showing signs of cracks. Just a day after the agreement was signed, Afghanistan’s president said that he will not free thousands of Taliban prisoners ahead of all-Afghan power-sharing talks set for next week, publicly disagreeing with a timetable for a speedy prisoner release laid out just a day earlier in a US-Taliban peace agreement. On March 02, the Taliban resumed attacks against Afghan government forces. Taliban claim that military operations against Afghan security forces does not violate the agreement, but American officials expect Taliban forces to continue to reduce violence across the Afghanistan.
As of now, the US appears all set to complete the pull out of its troops as per the agreed schedule. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters at the Pentagon on March 02 that he has given the US commander in Afghanistan approval to begin a drawdown of American troops in Afghanistan. The US has agreed to reduce its footprint in Afghanistan to 8,600 within 135 days of the signing and complete a total withdrawal of US forces in 14 months. That deal is “conditions based.” Esper elaborated that the US will assess whether the Taliban has lived up to its end of the agreement once American forces drawdown to 8,600 troops. Esper said the peace process in Afghanistan will be “long, windy bumpy road” with starts and stops.
Agreement comprises four parts: 1) guarantees to prevent the use of Afghan soil by any international terrorist groups or individuals against the security of the United States and its allies, 2) a timeline for the withdrawal of all US and Coalition forces from Afghanistan, 3) a political settlement resulting from intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations between the Taliban and an inclusive negotiating team of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and 4) a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.
Most of all that the US has conceded is easily quantifiable and verifiable in concrete terms; and, most of all that Taliban are required to do is neither easy to quantify nor easy to verify in concrete terms. Here lies the Centre of Gravity fault line of this agreement, which makes it easy for the Americans to walk away from the agreement at a time of their choosing; what they have to do is just create a false flag storm of subjective comments on Taliban’s behavior by accusing them of violence which may not be of their making. And there is no dearth of spoilers in Afghan end game.
The peace deal is part of a wider push for Afghan reconciliation and an end to the war. Representatives from fifty countries, foreign ministers of different countries including Pakistan’s Shah Mahmood Qureshi, attended attending the signing ceremony of the agreement. Pakistan played a critical role in bringing the two sides to the negotiation table. Khalilzad has on multiple occasions appreciated and thanked Pakistan for its constructive role in the peace process.
President Donald Trump had been urging the Afghan people to embrace the chance for a new future. “If the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan live up to these commitments, we will have a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our troops home,” he said on the eve of signing of agreement. Agreement also promises flow of development related aid to Afghanistan.
American arrogance is well in place. Defense Secretary Mark Esper has warned that the US “will not hesitate to nullify” its historic deal with the Taliban if the insurgents renege on their security guarantees and commitment to hold talks with the Afghan government. The US could pause or delay the withdrawal of American troops, Esper added. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was quick to sermon the Taliban to honour the agreement: “I know there will be a temptation to declare victory, but victory for Afghans will only be achieved when they can live in peace and prosper.” Most analysts think that intra Afghan talks would be too thorny to predict a linear outcome. So, let’s keep our fingers crossed!
