Debate is raging in the print and electronic media over Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Pakistan; and analysts are trying to find out what prompted him to pay a visit to Pakistan. There is indeed many a reason. For one, his BJP had been almost routed in Bihar elections that had brought down its popularity graph. Despite his manipulations, Narendra Modi could not dare withdraw Article 370 that gave special status to Kashmir, and could not have his way. Modi’s one constituency is RSS, the other one is Corporate Sector, and if he continued with his politics of confrontation and war mongering, no investment would be forthcoming. Despicable acts of Shiv Sena and other Hindu extremists have brought ignominy to India, and Modi has to draw flak from the US, the West and the UN.
Modi wants transit route to Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics through land, which is the shortest and most economical route. Last but not the least; India aspires to be a permanent member in the UNSC. But in view of the above factors, India does not qualify for that. Anyhow, Narendra Modi found an occasion to give a good will gesture; hence he took the initiative. In fact, the die for resumption of dialogue was cast when Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif exchanged pleasantries on the sidelines of the 21st UN Climate Change Conference in Paris on 30the November. Then in the first week of this month at Bangkok, delegations led by National Security Advisors of India and Pakistan met, which was a real breakthrough. India’s Ministry of External Affairs said the discussions covered “peace and security, terrorism, Jammu and Kashmir, and other issues.”
Later, in Heart of Asia Conference in Islamabad, India and Pakistan agreed to resume structured dialogue. India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj during her visit to attend the conference in Islamabad had said: “We have decided to restart the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue, earlier known as Composite Dialogue and later on as Resumed Dialogue will now be known as the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue.” It was agreed that all issues including Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, and water would be discussed. In view of the above statements and willingness to discuss all issues including Kashmir, Narendra Modi appears to have realized that if he continues policy of confrontation, India’s desire to become permanent member of the UNSC and boost to the economy will remain a pipe dream. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had given a gesture of goodwill by attending oath-taking ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, yet secretary-level talks were cancelled.
In case, there is turmoil in India due to Hindu extremists’ despicable acts like killing Muslims on the pretext of slaughtering cows or converting minorities by force; unrest in Kashmir due to repression and oppression and skirmishes on the Indo-Pakistan border, corporate sector would be annoyed. Thus he faces a dilemma; if he continues to facilitate and promote corporate interests, it will create unrest among the great majority of the people living below the poverty line, as fruits of Indian growth rate are not reaching at grass root level. On the other hand, if he neglects corporate interests foreign investment would not come. His address in the Afghan Parliament and then visiting Pakistan appears to be an effort to appease pro-Ashraf Ghani lobby in Kabul to get India a role and relevance in Afghan imbroglio.
Before coming to Pakistan, Narendra Modi had a stopover in Kabul to inaugurate the Afghan parliament building that was constructed by India at a cost of USD 90 million. He also addressed the two houses, and perhaps to showcase his sincerity he said that “he saw Pakistan as a potential bridge between South Asia and Pakistan.” While referring to terrorism, he did not single out Pakistan, but mentioned on both sides of the border i.e. in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This seems to be a good change, as earlier he continued with anti-Pakistan propaganda and activities in association with Afghan intelligence agency NDS. India and Pakistan had many rounds of talks in the past including the Composite Dialogue, but no progress could be made on issues like Kashmir, Sir Creek, Siachen and building of large reservoirs on Pakistani rivers. The days ahead would show Narendra Modi’s sincerity for peace between the two countries.