Bashoo Baloch
Most of the hope pinned on the quadrilateral efforts to settle Afghanistan issue appears to have dwindled quite fast. The resumption of peace talks stand stalled as Taliban have declined to budge from their stance and they are probably depending on their armed might against the Afghan unity government. Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour is perhaps under pressure of his comrades to continue with the armed struggle which is certainly yielding the dividends as Taliban militia has been gradually taking over areas from government forces. Mullah Mansour understands that his lower tier of leadership is more happy over the gains on ground. These territorial gains would obviously strengthen his position even if the talks resumed sometime later.
This is the probable reason that Taliban are not much receptive to exhortations from Pakistan or from any other source. The logic based on perceived theory that their some command structure is based in Pakistan hence they cannot say ‘No’ to Islamabad does not stand valid as Taliban have enough era in Afghanistan under their occupation and must have shifted most of their command structure there. Recent assertion of Mr. Sartaj Aziz; adviser to PM on foreign affairs that soon Taliban are going to be brought to negotiating table was perhaps disproportionate to ground realities. Such statements can also be construed by Kabul and Washington that Taliban are probably on the beck and call of Pakistan. These promising assertions need to be avoided.
On the other hand Taliban summer offensive is in the offing and more territorial gains they are likely to achieve. In this case Afghan unity government’s fears are genuine and Kabul would stand more hard pressed by appealing hither and thither to thwart Taliban’s further adventures. A perception held is that some factions of Afghan unity government are unwilling to see the talks going successful as the peace in Afghanistan might make the support disappear they are getting from US and elsewhere. On the other hand peaceful Afghanistan would offer an opportunity to ethnic Pashtuns to assert their proven majority which would not be to the liking of non-Pashtuns. The latter’s present leadership certainly wants status quo. These factions want resumption of unconditional peace talks with Taliban which is unlikely to be acceptable to Taliban leadership.
Pakistan should maintain a wise balance in its approach. She should avoid boasting of more influence of what she actually has over Taliban. Being next door neighbour Pakistan naturally needs a government in Afghanistan which must deny access and placement to elements like TTP and its ilk in Afghanistan creating internal security situation for Pakistan. For this to happen she should never over-stretch any character involved in current security situation of Afghanistan as by doing so an unpleasant situation might develop against Pakistan. The latter should promote that approach to peace process which must not be unsettling for her domestic front. In view of their (Taliban) recent territorial gains whether USA and other countries having presence of their ground forces in Afghanistan would embark upon more offensive adventures against Taliban or not. This is a troubling question for Pakistan. The latter though must keep on evaluating the situation to facilitate itself of making sound policy decision in the wake of obtaining situation in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan had been an insurmountable challenge to Britishers, and to former USSR. Presently, USA is also facing the same dilemma. Discomfiture of allied forces is evident in Afghanistan and dismal end of peace efforts is also vividly seen. There is no way out from this quandary unless Afghan unity government is in entirety sincere for meaningful peace talks with Taliban. On the other hand anti-Pakistan elements within Afghan unity government being in league with Indian nurtured proxies, are causing annoyance to political leadership of Pakistan. The latter does see to importance of permanent peace in Afghanistan but simultaneously the irritants sitting in Afghanistan are no less cause of concern to her.
