Sarah Khan
India’s nuclear weapons capability is becoming a source of major concern for the entire world as it is believed to be “fastest growing and most insecure” nuclear program. Recently, India’s renowned nuclear strategist VipinNarang categorically stated that “there is an increasing evidence that India will not allow Pak to go first in use of nuclear weapons”. The statement was issued at a conference on nuclear policy held at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The statement by a renowned nuclear strategist is a clear deviation from India’s stated No First Use (NFU) policy. India has the oldest, largest, and fastest-growing, unsafeguarded nuclear program of all non-Non-Proliferation Treaty states and the entire developing world. Deviation from NFU policy by BJP led radical Hindu government can put the entire World at risk in general and South Asian region in particular
Soon after overt nuclearization, in1999, the draft Indian nuclear doctrine proposed by the National Security Advisory Board reiterated that “India will not be the first to initiate a nuclear strike” and went so far as to assert that “the very existence of offensive doctrine pertaining to the first use of nuclear weapons constitute[s] a threat to peace, stability and sovereignty of states”. In 2003, the cabinet committee on security reaffirmed that the official doctrine included a “posture of no first use”. Since then, NFU had been the official policy of the Indian government. But since Modi came into power as India’s Prime Minister, India has become more belligerent. Firing at Line of Control has become a routine affair. India is modernizing its military capability with special emphasis on delivery systems. The VipinNarang’s statement reflects the BJP intention that India will no longer adhere to NFU policy.
India’s nuclear capability has become an issue of main concern for international community. Brooking’s research published in March this year, fears that India’s rapid development of long-range ballistic missiles, the development of multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (or MIRVs) on ballistic missiles, submarine-based nuclear weapons, missile defense systems, and outer space capabilities may threaten regional stability. The report also noted that the Indian No First Use (NFU) is controversial, and there has been significant opposition to it among Indian strategic community. India spent four times more on defense than Pakistan. Today, 42 years after its first nuclear test, New Delhi spends almost seven times more on its military than Islamabad. Moreover, India’s growing conventional and strategic capabilities are overwhelmingly poised against Pakistan. The Indian “Cold Start” doctrine aims to rapidly launch shallow thrusts inside Pakistani territory in order to capture and use it for coercing Pakistan. The large-scale Indian development of highly-mobile and armored mechanized formations, artillery, rapid airlift capabilities, forward displacement of troops and garrisons, supporting communication infrastructure, and massive spending provide compelling evidence of operationalization of the “Cold Start” doctrine.
India’s military modernization is mainly aimed at targeting Pakistan. But deviation from NFU despite huge conventional superiority vis a vis Pakistan is alarming for regional stability. As stated by VipinNarang, nuclear use by radical BJP seems possible due to its extremist views against Pakistan. Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan is a nightmare scenario which will put the entire world at risk due to mammoth devastating effects of modern nukes. Hence, as indicated by Brookings, the US must address the issue of oldest, largest, and fastest-growing, unsafeguarded nuclear program of India. The US and international community must play its role to ensure effective nuclear safeguards and rational command and control of India’s nuclear weapons program.
